Event details

Alan Abramowitz, the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University, is an American political scientist and author, known for his research and writings on American politics, elections, and political parties. His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate. His election forecast has correctly and precisely predicted the popular vote winner within two percentage points or less in every U.S. presidential election since 1988. He is the author or coauthor of five books, including "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States."

In his upcoming talk, " "The ideological American voter: The rise of partisan-ideological consistency and its consequences," Abramowitz will present evidence from American national election studies data since the 1970s showing that the American electorate has been transformed in recent years due to the rise of partisan-ideological consistency. He will show that increasing partisan-ideological consistency has been a major factor in the rise of affective polarization and goes a long way toward explaining increasing party loyalty, a dramatic decline in ticket splitting and an equally dramatic decline in the proportion of swing voters. He will also discuss its implications for redistricting.