SPRING
2000
CEE 360/548: Risk Assessment and
Management
Prof. Erik VanMarcke
Class Meets MW 1:30-2:50pm in Rm E-223
Second exam handed out at the end of class on
Wednesday, April 26; due on Friday, April 28, 3PM, in E-318, Kathy
Posnett's office.
Expect the A.I., Jim Tantalla, to send you an
email (on Wednesday night?) with the URL of a web page containing
solutions to Problem Set #6.
Term project assignment: click on number 5
below.
Assignments (Click on Number):
1 (Feb. 16) 2 (Feb. 23) 3 (March 1) 4 (March 8) 5 (March 27) 6 (April 6)
CEE 360/548 -- Spring 2000
COURSE INFORMATION
Instructor
Professor Erik VanMarcke
Room: E-324; Phone: x8-5896; E-mail: evm@princeton.edu
Webpage (FYI): http://www.princeton.edu/~evm
Office Hours on Wednesdays 3 to 4pm
Secretary: Kathy Posnett
Room: E-318; Phone: x4613
Teaching Assistant
James Tantalla
Room: E-328; Phone: x8-5426
E-mail: tantalla@princeton.edu
Office Hours: Mondays 3-4:30pm, or by appointment
Aims of the Course
To become acquainted with: the fundamentals of
integrated risk assessment and risk-based decision analysis;
stochastic modeling of natural and technological hazards; evaluation
of failure chances and consequences; risk and vulnerability in
complex systems and enterprises; risk-based decision criteria;
methods of risk assessment and management based on subjective
probability, event and fault trees, system reliability, and
space-time modeling of systems and processes; dynamic strategies to
manage risks; risk-based regulation, liability, and insurance; and
securitization of risk. To gain practical experience through case
studies involving energy-related technologies, health and the
environment, civil infrastructure and finance. Mixture of lectures
and labs/precepts.
Prerequisites
ORF 245 or MAT 222 or equivalent
Text/Notes
Current plan is to provide extensive handouts and
assign readings from risk-related sites on the Web. Some materials
may be made available as a package (for a one-time charge) at Pequod,
Nassau Street, Princeton; this will be announced in class.
Web Address
This Site:
http://www.princeton.edu/~evm/cee360&548.html
Course Requirements & Grading Policy
- 6 regular assignments, posted on this Web site, typically on
Wednesdays.
- In-class midterm and end-of-term exam (50 minutes each); no
"final".
- Individual or team final project; tentative due date: Monday,
May 8.
- Add-on requirements (in some of the assignments and exams) for
graduate credit, available to graduate students; to be mentioned
in class.
- Final grades will be computed based on the formula:
20% assignments + 30% in-class exams + 50% term project
Handling of Assignments and Solutions
- Assignments will be posted on the Web; click on the
appropriate number in the assignment
menu (top of this page).
- Graded assignments and exams will be returned in class;
leftovers can be picked up in the CEE 360/548 "Out Box" in the
Student Lounge (E-Wing, E-Quad).
- After grading is done, solutions (to assignments or exams)
will be posted on a bulletin board on the 3rd Floor, E-Wing,
E-Quad.
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CEE 360/548 -- Spring 2000
PRELIMINARY OUTLINE OF LECTURES &
READINGS
Week of January 31
- Lecture topics: Risk assessment and management: needs,
scope, terminology. Types of hazards and consequences. Types of
systems. Decision situations. Interdisciplinary nature.
Perspectives on risk: legal, regulatory, actuarial. Overview of
applications.
- No lab/precept during first week
- Readings: Survey risk-related websites; short report
due on Monday, Feb. 14.
Week of February 7
- Lecture topics: Interpretations of probability.
Information processing through Bayesian analysis. Event trees;
conditional probability. Biases in probability estimation. Risk
perception. Expert opinion.
- Lab/Precept 1: Detection of "solution cavities" in
limestone areas.
- Readings: "Brief Review of Elementary Probability
Theory"; see Handout pp. 7 through 10.
Week of February 14
- Lecture topics: Risk management as decision analysis.
Elements: costs, risks, consequences (monetary, social,
environmental). "Risk cost"; risk aversion. Multi-attribute
decisions. Value of information. Decisions in sequence. Decision
criteria.
- Lab/Precept 2. Uncertainty in construction cost
estimation; risks in bidding.
- Assignment #1
Week of February 21
- Lecture topics: Tools of risk analysis. Functions of
random variables. Algebra of expectation; correlation. Classical
reliability analysis (series, parallel, mixed systems). Fault tree
analysis.
- Lab/Precept 3:. Groundwater treatment system
reliability/fault tree analysis.
- Assignment #2
Weeks of February 28 & March 6
- Lecture topics: Integrated risk assessment/management.
Multiple hazards and consequences. Modeling failure event topology
and chronology. Event tree, fault tree, and system reliability
approaches. Sources of data. Strategies for risk mitigation.
Decision context: siting, design, monitoring, public policy.
- Lab/Precept 4: Integrated risk assessment/management
for dams.
- Assignments #3 & 4
Week of March 13: MIDTERM BREAK
Weeks of March 20 & 27
- Lecture topics: Poisson and point processes. Sums and
extreme values of a random number of random effects. Hazard
functions. Load combinations. Treatment in design codes. Loss
estimation methodologies.
- Lab/Precept 5: Environmental site remediation:
"risk-based corrective action".
- Take-home exam
- Assignment #5
Weeks of April 3
- Lecture topics: Markov models and Markov decision
analysis; reward matrices; expected future expected losses.
Multi-state Markov modeling of damage, deterioration, and failure.
- Precept/Lab 6: Multi-hazard risk assessment in a
regulatory setting: transmission towers case.
- Readings: Second set of handouts, pp. 47-79.
- Assignment #6
Week of April 10 & 17
- Student project presentations
- Lecture topics: Risk analysis for earthquakes and
extreme wind.
- Readings: Second set of handouts, pp. 11-46.
Week of April 24
- Lecture topics: Review, assessment. Research needs,
opportunities.
- Lab/Precept 8: PRA's for nuclear power plant
installations. Alternatives: Markovian modeling of
(genetic) disease progression; bridge deterioration.
Lab/Precept 9: Financial risk assessment: diversify to
reduce risk (portfolio optimization).
- Wednesday: take-home end-of-term exam
Term Projects Due on Monday, May 8 in CEE 360/548 "In-Box"
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