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Probabilistic Thinking
PROBABILISTIC THINKING
© 1995 by Richard Jeffrey
Princeton University
Table of Contents
Preface
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY
1.1 Bets and Probabilities
1.2 Why Probabilities are Additive
1.3 Laws of Probability
1.4 Conditional Probability
1.5 Laws of Conditional Probability
1.6 Why `|' Can't be a Connective
1.7 Changing your Mind; Conditioning
1.8 Generalized Conditioning
1.9 Bayes' Theorem
1.10 Independence
1.11 "Real Probability"; Chance
1.12 Problems
1.13 Notes
SOLUTIONS
CHAPTER 2: METHODOLOGY
2.1 Confirmation
2.2 Huygens on Light
2.3 Observation and Sufficiency
2.4 Leverrier on Neptune
2.5 Multiple Uncertainties
2.6 Dorling on the Duhem problem
2.7 Einstein vs. Newton, 1919
2.8 Bell's Inequalities: Holt vs. Clauser
2.9 Laplace vs. Adams
2.10 Dorling's conclusions
2.11 Problems
2.12 Notes
CHAPTER 3: EXPECTATION
3.1 Desirability
3.2 Problems
3.3 Rescaling
3.4 Expectations, RV's, Indicators
3.5 Why Expectations are Additive
3.6 Conditional Expectation
3.7 Laws of Expectation
3.8 Physical Analogies; Mean and Median
3.9 Desirabilies as Expectations
3.10 Notes
SOLUTIONS
CHAPTER 4: DECISION
4.1 Preference Logic
4.2 Kinematics
4.3 Causality
4.4 Fisher
4.5 Newcomb
4.6 Hofstadter
4.7 Conclusion
4.8 Notes
4.9 References
CHAPTER 5: PROBABILISM AND INDUCTION
5.1 Probabilism, what
5.2 Induction, what
5.3 Justifying induction
5.4 Solution or evasion?
5.5 Notes
Please write to
bayesway@princeton.edu
with any comments or suggestions.
