Education and Employment

Publications

• Against the no-difference argument. Analysis, forthcoming.
• Confession of a causal decision theorist. Analysis 82(2): 203-213, 2022.
• Fragmentation and logical omniscience. Noûs 56(3), 2022. With Agustín Rayo.
• Fragmentation and information access. In The Fragmented Mind, Cristina Borgoni, Dirk Kindermann, and Andrea Onofri, eds. Oxford University Press, 2021. With Agustín Rayo.
• Why We Don’t Have Enough Backup Ventilators. Route Fifty, April 10, 2020. With Daniel Oppenheimer
• Newcomb University: A Play in One Act. Analysis 80(2): 212–221, 2020.
• The Policy Consequences of Cascade Blindness. Behavioural Public Policy, 1-22, 2018. With Daniel Oppenheimer.
• Improving students’ understanding and analytical reasoning: A quasi-experimental field study of argument visualization with first-year undergraduates. Nature Partner Journals: Science of Learning 3(21), 2018. With Simon Cullen, Eva van der Brugge, and Judith Fan.
• Bayesian humility. Philosophy of Science 83 (July): 305-323, 2016.
• The puzzle of the unmarked clock and the new rational reflection principle. Philosophical Studies 164(1): 127-139, 2013.
• How to disagree about how to disagree. In Disagreement. Richard Feldman and Ted Warfield, eds. Oxford University Press, 2010.
• Subjective Probabilities Should be Sharp. Philosophers' Imprint, 10(5), 2010. Reprinted in The Philosopher's Annual 30, Patrick Grim, Billy Dunaway, J. Dmitri Gallow, Alex Silk, eds, 2011.
• Reflection and Disagreement. Noûs, 41(3): 478-502, 2007. Reprinted in The Philosopher's Annual 27, Patrick Grim, Ian Flora and Alex Plakias, eds, 2007, and Social Epistemology: An Anthology, Dennis Whitcomb and Alvin Goldman, eds, Oxford University Press, 2011.
• "Isolation and folk physics." Causation, Physics, and the Constitution of Reality: Russell's Republic Revisited. Huw Price and Richard Corry, eds. Oxford University Press, 2007.
• "Irreversibility" and "Time." Entries in The Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia, Sahotra Sarkar and Jessica Pfeifer, eds. Routledge Reference, 2006.
• "I can't believe I'm stupid." Philosophical Perspectives 19(1): 77-93, 2005. With Andy Egan.
• "On overrating oneself... and knowing it."Philosophical Studies, 123: 115-124, 2005.
• "Defeating Dr. Evil with self-locating belief." Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 69(2), 2004.
• "Bayesianism, infinite decisions, and binding." Mind 113: 251-283, 2004. With Frank Arntzenius and John Hawthorne.
• "Infinitesimal chances and the laws of nature." Australasian Journal of Philosophy 82(1):67-76, 2004. Reprinted in Lewisian Themes, Frank Jackson and Graham Priest, eds. Oxford University Press, 2008.
• Statistical Mechanics and the Asymmetry of Counterfactual Dependence.  Philosophy of Science (suppl. vol. 68, PSA 2000): S313-S324, 2001.
• "Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem." Analysis 60(2), 2000. Reprinted in Arguing About Knowledge, Duncan Pritchard, Ram Neta, eds. Routledge, 2010, and Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings, Antony Eagle, ed. Routledge, 2011.
• "A coupled attractor model of the rodent head direction system" (with A. David Redish and David S. Touretzky). Network 7: 671-685, 1996.

Honors and awards

• Open Philanthropy Course Development Grant for "Longtermism, existential risk, and the future of humanity" (joint with Calvin Baker), 2022-2023
• Member, Princeton Institute for Advanced Study (School of Social Science), 2014-2015
• David A. Gardner Magic Project Grant for "Cascading failures and risk pollution", 2014-2015
• Grant from Princeton 250th Anniversary Fund for Innovation in Undergraduate Education, 2013
• Philosopher's Annual selection for "Subjective Probabilities Should be Sharp," chosen as one of the ten best philosophy papers published in 2010
• Grant from Princeton 250th Anniversary Fund for Innovation in Undergraduate Education, 2009
• David A. Gardner Magic Project Grant for "The neural basis of free will and consciousness", 2008-2009
• Philosopher's Annual selection for Reflection and Disagreement, chosen as one of the ten best philosophy papers published in 2007
• William G. Bowen Presidential University Preceptorship, Princeton University, 2004-2007
• Sponsored Freshman Seminar, Princeton University Center for the Study of Religion, 2004
• Old Dominion Faculty Fellow, Princeton University Council of the Humanities, 2002, 2004
• Certificate of Distinction in Teaching, Harvard University Dean of Undergraduate Education, 2001
• Josephine De Kármán Fellowship in Humanistic Studies, De Kármán Fellowship Foundation, 2000
• Institute for Advanced Studies at the Hebrew University grant to attend Jerusalem Summer School in Economic Theory, 1999
• Mellon Fellowship in Humanistic Studies, Mellon Fellowship Foundation, 1996
• Elected to Phi Beta Kappa Society, 1996
• John Martyn Warbeke Prize in Metaphysics and Epistemology, Princeton University Department of Philosophy, 1996

Presentations

Upcoming

• "Moral and epistemic self-nudging, anticipated bias, and multi-armed bandits", Natural and Artificial Minds launch event, Princeton University, September 27, 2024

Past

• "Bracketing and Boltzmann Brains", Rutgers Epistemology Conference, May 3, 2024
• "The unmarked clock", guest lecture for graduate seminar, Johns Hopkins University, February 14, 2024
• Invited discussant for APA session on ChatGPT and critical thinking, Eastern Division meeting of the American Philosophical Association, January 17, 2024
• "Longtermism", guest lecture for "AI alignment and safety" seminar, Princeton University, September 27, 2023
• "Think it over", Conference on Intellectual Humility, Rationality and Self-Doubt, University of Leeds (virtual), September 13, 2023
• "Comments on Orri Stefansson's 'Precaution, lexical utilities and vagueness'", Center for Population-Level Bioethics and Institute for Futures Studies Conference on Incommensurability and Population-Level Bioethics, Rutgers University, May 18, 2022
• "Why I ain't rich", University of Michigan (virtual), October 1, 2021
• Session leader at Colgate University seminar "Rationality in an Uncertain World" [virtual], October 11, 2021
• Colgate University. [Invitation to give colloquium talk declined due to Covid-19], Fall 2021
• University of Rochester. [Invitation to give colloquium talk declined due to Covid-19], Fall 2021
• "Fragmented decision theory and fragmented Bayesian thought", Society for Philosophy and Psychology, June 28, 2021.
• "Confession of a causal decision theorist", Pacific Division meeting of the American Philosophical Association, April 9 2021
• "Risk pollution and the tragedy of the invisible commons", Princeton University Human Values Forum, March 29, 2021.
• "Fragmentation and logical omniscience" (joint presentation with Agustin Rayo), Eastern Division meeting of the American Philosophical Association, January 9, 2021
• "The price of self-doubt", Online Conference on Disagreement and Self-Doubt, University of Leeds, October 21, 2020
• Invited participant, NYU Epistemology Workshop, March 13, 2020 [Event canceled due to Covid-19]
• "Causal decision theory does not exist", Rutgers Probability Worshop, January 27, 2020.
• "Causal decision theory does not exist", Seminar in Logic, Games and Language, CUNY Graduate Center, Nov 1, 2019
• "Fragmentation, mathematical ignorance, and the metalinguistic reply", Formal Epistemology Workshop, University of Toronto, June 14, 2018
• "Fragmentation, mathematical ignorance, and the metalinguistic reply", University of Graz, January 16, 2018 (remote presentation)
• "Mental fragmentation and logical omniscience" (joint presentation with Agustin Rayo), Pacific Division meeting of the American Philosophical Association, April 12-16, 2017
• "Bayesian humility", Philosophy of Science Reading Group, Rutgers University, February 3, 2017.
• "Bayesian humility and an introduction to ultralimits", Philosophy of Science Reading Group, Rutgers University, February 3, 2017
• "Fragmented decision theory" (joint presentation with Agustin Rayo), Eastern Division meeting of the American Philosophical Association, January 5, 2017
• "Fragmented decision theory", Foundations of Probability Seminar, Rutgers University, November 7, 2016
• "Cascading failures and gambling tasks", Social Psychology Research Seminar, Princeton University, November 9, 2015
• "Decision theory, logical omniscience, and mental fragmentation", University of Southern California, April 10, 2015
• "When do evolutionary and neuroscientific debunking arguments undermine moral judgments?" (discussion session), UC Santa Barbara, January 8, 2015
• "Risk pollution and cascading failures", Casualty Actuaries of the Mid-Atlantic Region Conference, October 8, 2014
• Harvard University (Law School guest speaker), March 7, 2014
• "Cascading failures and gambling tasks", UCLA Cognitive Psychology Forum, January 10, 2014
• "Risk pollution: How to destroy probabilities and lives by trying to make things safer", Oxford University, November 22, 2013
• "Suspiciously-formed preferences", University of Missouri, October 18, 2013
• "Suspiciously-formed desires", City University of New York Graduate Center, October 9, 2013
• "How to destroy probabilities and lives by trying to make things safer", University of Pennsylvania, October 4, 2013
• "Does disagreement about disagreement refute conciliationism?" UC Santa Barbara, June 11, 2013
• "Crossword puzzles, fragmented belief, and logical omniscience", University of California Berkeley Working group in the history and philosophy of logic, mathematics, and science, April 24, 2013
• "Self-effacing conciliationism", Syracuse University, March 22, 2013
• "Self-effacing conciliationism", Central Division meeting of the American Philosophical Association, February 21, 2013
• "Belief fragmentation", Yale University (graduate seminar visit), November 27, 2012
• "The puzzle of the unmarked clock and the new rational reflection principle", Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, Bellingham, WA, August 1, 2012
• "How to destroy probabilities", Keynote address at Princeton/Rutgers graduate philosophy conference, March 31, 2012
• "The puzzle of the unmarked clock", Stanford University, February 3, 2012
• "How to destroy probabilities and lives by trying to make things safer", California Institute of Technology, January 6, 2012
• "Uncertainty about rationality and the new rational reflection principle", Amherst College, October 27, 2011
• "Comments on Miriam Schoenfield's 'Chilling Out on Epistemic Rationality'", Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, Bellingham, WA, August 2, 2011
• "Don't trust anyone, not even yourself", "Knowledge, metacognition and modes of justification" conference, Institut Jean Nicod, Paris, France, June 24, 2011
• "Comment on Williams's 'Decision making under indeterminacy'", Formal Epistemology Workshop, University of Southern California, May 20, 2011
• Guest leader of seminar session on ethics and disagreement, Princeton University, April 6, 2011
• "Don't trust anyone, not even yourself", Brown Epistemology Workshop, March 13, 2011
• "Antidepressants and choosing your own desires", Princeton Theological Seminary, February 1, 2011
• "Belief fragmentation and logical omniscience", University of California, Riverside, January 11, 2011
• "Localism vs globalism about rationality", Princeton Philosophy of Economics/Decision Theory Reading Group, November 19, 2010
• "The problem of contingency", philostv.com web video discussion with Roger White and Joshua Schechter, November 14, 2010
• "Don't trust anyone, not even yourself", Princeton Philosophical Society, March 28, 2010
• "The alien-creation dilemma", Princeton Bioethics Forum, February 12, 2010
• "Subjective probabilities should be sharp", University of Michigan, November 5, 2009
• "Representing normative uncertainty", University of Massachusetts, Amherst, October 9, 2009
• "Fragmented belief states and logical omniscience" (Joint presentation with Agustin Rayo), CUNY Graduate Center, October 2, 2009
• "Representing normative uncertainty", Princeton University, May 6, 2009
• "How to be incoherent, and why", UC Santa Cruz, April 17, 2009
• Guest seminar presentation on logical omniscience, MIT, April 2, 2009
• "Philosophy of economic disaster", MIT IAP lecture, Cambridge MA, January 9, 2009
• "Antidepressants, happiness, and free will: Should we put Prozac in the water supply?" (joint presentation with Shana Stein Elga), Paideia discussion group, Princeton University, December 9, 2008
• "Lucky to be rational", Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, Bellingham, WA, August 6, 2008
• Joint presentation on disagreement with Tom Kelly, "Knowledge, faith, and disagreement" conference, Princeton University, April 26, 2008
• Guest seminar presentation on time travel, MIT, March 14, 2008
• Disagreement seminar presentation, Brown University, March 13, 2008
• "How to be incoherent, and why", Arizona Ontology Conference, January 9, 2008
• Reply to Francis Kamm's "What is and Is Not Wrong with Enhancement?", Princeton University Center for Human Values, December 5, 2007
• Joint presentation on disagreement with Tom Kelly, Behrman Fellows meeting, November 27, 2007
• "What does disagreement about disagreement teach us about disagreement?" University of Wisconsin, October 26, 2007
• "Comments on Jill North's 'The Structure of Physics'", Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, Bellingham, WA, August 8, 2007
• "Lucky to be rational, lucky to be wise", Oxford University, Oxford, U.K., February 9, 2007
• "Subjective probabilities should be sharp", MITing of the minds conference, Cambridge MA, January 28, 2007
• "Large number battle" (joint presentation with Agustin Rayo), MIT IAP lecture, Cambridge MA, January 26, 2007
• "Lucky to be rational", NYU Mind and Language seminar, New York, NY, January, 23, 2007
• "Reflection and Bootstrapping", APA Eastern Division Meeting, Washington D.C., December 30, 2006
• "Lucky to be rational, lucky to be wise", University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, Nov 3, 2006
• "Lucky to be rational, lucky to be wise", University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, November 1, 2006
• "Lucky to be rational, lucky to be wise", Harvard University Metaphysics and Epistemology Workshop, Cambridge, MA, October 19, 2006
• "Reflection and disagreement", Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, Bellingham, WA, August 1, 2006
• "Reflection and disagreement", Formal Epistemology Workshop, Berkeley, CA, May 27, 2006
• "Cartwright on causal laws", guest presentation at NYU graduate seminar "Metaphysics of Causation", New York, NY, March 29, 2006
• "Ordinary objects: Comments on Korman", APA Pacific Division Meeting, Portland, OR, March 24, 2006
• "Reflection and disagreement", University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia, March 9, 2006
• "Should your beliefs survive scrutiny of their origins?", Russelian Society, Sydney, Australia, March 8, 2006
• "The problem of access omniscience", Probability Conference, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, March 2, 2006
• "Reflection, disagreement, bootstrapping", Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, February 16, 2006
• "Comments on Strevens", Arizona Ontology Conference, Tucson, AZ, January 13, 2006
• "Self-locating probabilities", guest presentation at University of Michigan graduate seminar "Relative Truth", Ann Arbor, MI, January 24, 2006
• "Comments on Maudlin and Albert", APA Eastern Division Meeting, New York, NY, December 2005
• "Why are causal graphs so sparse?", The Origins and Functions of Causal Thinking II, Pasadena, CA, November 11, 2005
• "Comments on Roger White's 'Epistemic Permissiveness'", Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, Bellingham, WA, August 2005
• "Isolation and folk causation", Rutgers University Workshop on Physicalism, April 22, 2005
• "Solidarity and disagreement", University of Michigan, February 18, 2005
• "Comments on Sarah Stroud's 'Epistemic partiality in friendship'", Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, Bellingham, WA, August 2004
• "Chances and branches", Metaphysics of Science Workshop, University of Reading, April 30, 2004
• "Chances and branches", Oxford University, April 28, 2004
• "Are accurate self-evaluations rational?", Princeton Cognitive Psychology Discussion Group, April 21, 2004
• "Should your beliefs survive scrutiny of their origins?", Southern Methodist University, April 8, 2004
• "Should your Convictions Survive Contemplation of their Origins?", University of Rochester, March 5, 2004
• "Comments on 'Chance and Counterfactuals'", APA Eastern Division Meeting, Washington D.C., December 2003
• "Chances and branches", University of Delaware, October 10, 2003
• "Waffling to avoid doublethink", Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, Bellingham, Washington, August 2, 2003
• "Counterfactuals for decision", University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia, July 16, 2003
• "Ungrounded desires", Australasian Association for Philosophy Annual Conference, Adelaide, Australia, July 9, 2003
• "Comments on Kutach and Frisch", APA Central Division Meeting, Cleveland, Ohio, April 24, 2003
• "Computing the halting function with a billiard-ball supertask", Oxford-Princeton philosophy of physics workshop, Oxford, U.K., March 18, 2003
• "Physics of computation", Columbia University, New York, NY, March 8, 2003
• "Memory Failure, Reflection, and Epistemic Solidarity", City University of New York, New York, NY, February 26, 2003
• "Why Neo was too confident that he'd escaped the Matrix", MIT independent activities period, Cambridge, MA, January 22, 2003
• "When not to take a sure thing", University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland, October 26, 2002
• Comments on Christopher Hitchcock's "Beauty and the Bets", Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, Bellingham, WA, August 3, 2002
• "Self-locating beliefs about chance" Philosophy Program, RSSS, Australian National University, Canberra, July 19, 2002
• "Computing the halting function with a billiard-ball supertask" Australasian Association for Philosophy Annual Conference, Christchurch, New Zealand, July 8, 2002
• "The Direction of Time and the Direction of Experience" University of Massachusetts, Amherst, February 22, 2002
• "Wormholes for fun and profit", MIT IAP, January 2002

Visiting Fellowships

• Member, Princeton Institute for Advanced Study (School of Social Science), 2014-2015
• Klein Visitor, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, October 17-19, 2013
• Distinguished Visitor, UC Santa Cruz Linguistics and Philosophy Group, Santa Cruz, CA, April 15-16, 2009
• Visiting Fellow, Philosophy Program, RSSS, Canberra, Australia, February-March 2006
• Visiting Fellow, Philosophy Program, RSSS, Canberra, Australia, June 2002

Service (Departmental)

• Panelist at professional development session for philosophy graduate students: "Job Market", February 16, 2024
• Philosophy Department Graduate Admissions Screening Committee, 2005, 2012-22, 2023-24
• Philosophy Department Philosophy of Physics Postdoc Selection Ad-hoc Committee, 2023
• Presenter at professional development session for philosophy graduate students: "Networking, Submitting to Conferences, and being a Commentator", 2023
• Volunteer mentor to junior faculty, 2022-present
• Philosophy Department working group on undergraduate logic teaching, 2023-24
• Philosophy Department Outreach Committee, 2023-24
• Philosophy Department Undergraduate Curriculum Committee, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2023-24
• Philosophy Department Placement Committee Chair, 2016-17, 2020-21
• Philosophy Department Placement Committee, 2004-5, 2007-8, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2019-21
• Beta tester for department web page launch, 2020
• Philosophy Department liason to learning management system committee, 2018-19
• Presenter at information session for philosophy graduate students: "How to get the most out of graduate school", 2015, 2019, 2020
• Philosophy Department Graduate Committee 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-21
• Philosophy Department Computer Committee Chair, 2007-8, 2010-14, 2018-19
• Philosophy Department Computer Committee, 2007-8, 2008-9, 2010-14, 2018-19
• Philosophy Department ad-hoc committee on the international network in analytic philosophy (CRNAP), Fall 2010, 2011-12
• Philosophy Department ad-hoc committee on the experience of graduate students in the department, 2011-13
• Liason to Princeton Program in Neuroscience, 2006-present
• Philosophy Department Appointments Committee, 2007-8
• Philosophy Department Colloquium Committee, 2004-5, 2007-8
• Philosophy Department Seminar Committee Chair, 2008-9
• Philosophy Department Seminar Committee, 2008-9
• Philosophy Department Graduate Committee, 2008-9, 2017
• Volunteer member of Philosophy Graduate Admissions Final Round Committee, 2007

Service (University and other)

• Director of Program in Linguistics, 2020-present
• Executive Committee for Program in Cognitive Science, 2023-present
• Grader, Politics Ph.D. Student General Examination (two students), 2024
• Cognitive Science Senior Thesis Prize Committee, 2024
• Application reviewer for Program in Cognitive Science graduate research fellowships, 2023
• Application reviewer for Princeton Society of Fellows program, 2018, 2023
• Program committee, Formal Epistemology Workshop, University of California-Irvine, 2022
• Program committee, Formal Epistemology Workshop, University of California-Irvine, 2020
• Executive Committee of Program in Linguistics, 2018-present
• Butler College Faculty Fellow, 2013-2022
• Nominating Editor, Philosopher's Annual, 2011-present
• Executive Committee for PIIRS Research Community on Global Systemic Risk, 2012-16
• Phi Beta Kappa Selection Committee, 2005-6
• Application reviewer for the Martin A. Dale '53 Fellowship, 2016-17
• Presentation on argument mapping, McGraw Center for Teaching and Learning, December 2, 2015
• Leader of Butler/Wilson college roundtable on drug-induced desires, November 20, 2015.
• University Committee on Library and Computing, 2011-14
• Application reviewer for Princeton Society of Fellows postdoctoral fellowship, 2013-14
• Faculty liason to senior thesis writing group, 2013-14
• Leader of university-wide Major Choices roundtable for potential philosophy majors ("Confession of a compatibilist about free will"), September 21, 2012.
• Liason to Princeton Program in Neuroscience, 2006-2016
• Application reader for Princeton Society of Fellows, November 2011
• Co-leader (with Steven Gubser) of Butler/Wilson college roundtable on "Time travel and faster-than-light motion", November 17, 2011
• Presenter at teaching training event, McGraw Center for Teaching and Learning, November 3, 2011
• Philosophy department representative to Princeton undergraduate majors fair, November 19, 2010
• Program committee, Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, August 2009
• Co-organizer of information session for philosophy graduate students: "How to get the most out of graduate school", May 15, 2009
• Co-editor of issue of Philosophical Studies containing proceedings of 2009 Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference, 2009
• External dissertation examiner, Australian National University, February 11, 2009
• Co-organiser of conference "Knowledge, Faith and Disagreement: the epistemological significance of religious pluralism", April 2008
• Consultant for McGraw Center External Review Committee, April 25 and December 9, 2008
• Majors Initiative Butler College presentation, February 20, 2007
• Presenter at New Faculty Orientation, McGraw Center for Teaching and Learning, September 2002 and September 2006
• Philosophy Representative to USG Majors Day, November 2006
• Referee for Nous, Synthese, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, Philosophical Quarterly, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, Philosopher's Imprint, Oxford University Press
• Co-organizer of Oxford-Princeton philosophy of physics conference, May 2002
• Participant, Princeton humanities symposium dinner for prospective undergraduates, Fall 2001

Dissertations Supervised since 2020

• Snow Zhang "Limits of Bayesianism", 2021
• Alexander Meehan, "On the Epistemology of Physical Probability", 2020
• Alireza Fatollahi, "Model Selection, Simplicity and the Conservative Treatment of Data", 2020

External Supervision

• Adam Bales, external dissertation examiner, University of Cambridge, September 2017
• Adam Bales, external examiner ("Decision and Dependence"), Monash University, July 2013.
• Adam Bales, external examiner ("Expanding the bounds of rationality: four optimistic pieces"), Monash University, July 2013.
• Brian Kim, external examiner, Columbia University, September 2012.
• Aidan Lyon, external examiner ("Three Concepts of Probability"), Australian National University, February 2009.
• Will Fleisher, external committee member, Rutgers University, 2016-18.

Outreach

• Guest session leader, Philosophy Club at Russell Byers Charter School, June 9, 2021